According to the historical chart, Bitcoin is approximately 180 days away from its Bitcoin Halving. Already, several experts have thrown in their prediction. Of course, the most bizarre so far is that of Cathie Woods. In an exclusive interview in August, she believes Bitcoin could be worth $1 million by 2030.
One of her reasons is that Bitcoin is the first global, private, digital, rules-based monetary system the world has ever known. “That’s a big idea,” Wood explains.
However, historical charts are showing that Bitcoin always falls before halving. Although, everything can change with Bitcoin ETF’s approval.
Historical Chart Suggests Bitcoin Will Fall To $20,000 Before Bitcoin Halving
According to top analyst Rekt Capital, the past two Bitcoin pre-halving phases are similar to what we are seeing now. Notably, at nearly 180 days to Bitcoin Halving in 2015/2016, there was a -25% retrace for Bitcoin. Also, in 2019 at approximately 200 days to Bitcoin halving, the price retraced -38%. According to him, a potential retrace is possible. This -30% retrace will see bitcoin drop to around the $20,000 price mark, as the chart suggests.
Bitcoin is ~180 days away from its Bitcoin Halving
At this point in the cycle, Bitcoin retraced -25% in 2015/2016 and -38% in 2019
History suggests a retrace is possible
A -30% retrace from current prices would see Bitcoin drop to ~$20,000$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/B3ROO6FJEr
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) October 17, 2023
It’s important to mention that even though the chart shows that Bitcoin retrace is possible before the next Bitcoin halving. The BTC price recorded a massive 300% rise before it halved in 2020.
Rekt Capital Further Explains The Historic 5 Chart Phases Of Bitcoin Halving
Rekt Capital has a massive explanation of the 5 phases of Bitcoin Halving, linking it to the current state through this chart.
- Pre-Halving period: Rekt Capital mentions that If a deeper retrace occurs, it will probably be over the next 140 days or so.
- Pre-Halving rally: This phase occurs about 60 days before the halving. In anticipation of the Halving, investors “Buy the Hype” to “Sell the News.”
- Pre-Halving retrace: Of course, this is likely to occur during halving. In 2016, this pre-halving retrace was -38% deep, while In 2020, this Pre-Halving retrace was -20% deep. This phase makes investors question whether the Bitcoin Halving was a bullish catalyst on price after all.
- Re-Accumulation: The Pre-Halving retrace is followed by a multi-month re-accumulation phase. Investors get shaken out in this stage due to boredom, impatience, and disappointment.
- Parabolic Uptrend: The most anticipated move then comes. It’s during this phase Bitcoin experiences massive open significant growth on its way to new All-Time Highs.
5 Phases of The Bitcoin Halving
1. Pre-Halving period
If a deeper retrace is going to occur, it will likely be over the next 140 days or so (orange)
In fact, $BTC retraced -24% in 2015 and -38% in 2019 at this same point in the cycle (i.e. ~200 days before the Halving)… pic.twitter.com/r1dAWBJXyw
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) October 6, 2023
The Catch: Bitcoin ETFs Approval Could Prevent Bitcoin Fall
Despite what’s visible on the chart as regarding the next Bitcoin halving and the so much anticipation for a price fall. It’s important to note that fundamental analysis plays a huge role in influencing the market and Bitcoin is not different. A good strong fundamental reaction can cause Bitcoin to hit up straight, defying everything the chart says.
Seeing how Bitcoin price spiked to nearly $30,000 after the fake Blackrock ETF approval news by Cointelegraph.
#CryptoNews: On October 16, #Bitcoin price surged to a high of $29.4k, following a tweet from #CoinTelegraph that #BlackRock's Bitcoin Spot #ETF had received approval. 👀https://t.co/x6UJ5xqLyu
— CoinMarketCap (@CoinMarketCap) October 17, 2023
Although the Cointelegraph has apologized, it’s clear that the Bitcoin price would see an uptrend with a Bitcoin ETF approval. Also, the approval any moment from now will definitely have major effects leading up to the next Bitcoin halving, irrespective of what the chart says.
We apologize for a tweet that led to the dissemination of inaccurate information regarding the Blackrock Bitcoin ETF.
An internal investigation is currently underway. We are committed to transparency and will share the findings of the investigation with the public once it is…
— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) October 16, 2023
Concluding Thoughts On Bitcoin Halving And Following Historic Chart Pattern
Notably, The Bitcoin futures ETF is an investment fund type that allows investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin without directly owning Bitcoin. Following BlackRock’s denial of the ETF approval report, Bitcoin lost some gains and is now trading at $28,401. So, It’s very unlikely to see Bitcoin fall to $20,000 once the SEC approves the multiple Bitcoin ETFs before the halving.
However, the SEC has been cautious about approving Bitcoin ETFs due to market manipulation and investor protection concerns. Consequently, It keeps denying all spot Bitcoin ETF applications. The SEC continues stating that applicants are not showing their ability to protect investors from market manipulation.
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